"I think this is actually the biggest (real estate) bubble in
U.S. history and possibly even world history." —
Robert Shiller.
Home Builders Changing Business Model. By Mike Vogel.
Florida Trend. Published 5/1/2008.
"A wrath to remember: The housing downturn is forcing home
builders to change the way they do business."
U.S. Mortgage Crisis Rivals S&L Meltdown. By Greg Ip, Mark Whitehouse, and Aaron Lucchetti.
The Wall Street Journal.
December 10, 2007. Page A1.
"The home has long been the bedrock asset of most American
families. Now, its value has become the biggest question mark hanging over the
global economy and financial system. Over the past decade, Wall Street built a market for more than
$2 trillion in securities sold globally and backed by loans to U.S. homeowners
on two long-accepted beliefs and one newer one. The prevailing logic: The value
of the American home would never fall nationwide, and people would almost always
make their mortgage payments. The more recent twist: Packaging mortgage loans
and turning them into securities would make the global economy more resilient if
anything went wrong. In a matter of months, though, much of the promise of the
new financial architecture -- together with its underlying assumptions -- has
proven to be a mirage. As house prices fall and homeowners default on mortgages
at troubling rates, the pain has spread far and wide. An examination of the
resulting crisis shows that it is comparable to some of the biggest financial
disasters of the past half-century." In
ProQuest
Foreclosures Will Hurt Economies, Mayors Warn.
By Kevin G. Hall. McClatchy
Newspapers. November 27, 2007.
"WASHINGTON — The deepening housing crisis will cut economic growth by
more than 25 percent in 143 U.S. metropolitan areas next year and by
more than a third in 65 metro communities, according to a new forecast
for the U.S. Conference of Mayors."
With Buyers Sidelined, Home Prices Slide:
Tighter Credit, Anticipation of Further Declines Add to Worst Glut Since Late 80's: the Foreclosure 'Fear Factor'.
By James R. Hagerty. Wall Street Journal;
October 25, 2007; Page D1.
"So many houses. So few buyers.
Home builders are slashing prices, often by more than 10%. Some people who
list their homes on Craigslist.org admit they are 'desperate' to sell.
Inventories of unsold homes are at the highest level in nearly two decades,
providing plenty of choices." In
ProQuest.
Housing, Housing Finance, & Monetary Policy.
A Symposium Sponsored by the Federal
Reserve Bank of Kansas City. Jackson Hole, Wyoming. August 30 -
September 1, 2007.
Housing and the Business Cycle By Edward E. Leamer.
August 7, 2007. In "Housing, Housing Finance, and Monetary Policy. A
Symposium Sponsored by the Federal reserve Bank of Kansas City. Jackson
Hole, Wyoming. August 30 - September 1, 2007.
"Only twice have we had this kind of housing collapse without a recession, in
1951 and in 1967, and both times the Department of Defense came to the rescue,
because of the Korean War and the Vietnam war. We don't want that kind of rescue
this time, do we?
"
Worldwide Bubble Trouble. By Robert J. Shiller.
The Japan Times Online, September 20, 2007.
"The future of the housing boom, and the possible financial
repercussions of a substantial price decline in coming years, are a matter of
mounting concern among governments around the world. I learned this firsthand while attending this year's Jackson
Hole Symposium in the wilderness of Wyoming, where, ironically, there are almost
no homes to buy. The howls of coyotes and bugling of elk rang out at night. But,
by day, everyone was talking about real estate.
"
How We Got into the Subprime Lending Mess.
Knowledge@Wharton, September 19, 2007.
"In a new paper, "The
Housing Finance Revolution", (Susan) Wachter traces the evolution of the
home-financing market over the decades, explaining how technology, deregulation,
globalization in financial markets and a world-wide decline in interest rates
have produced the current crisis. Her co-author is Richard K. Green, professor
of finance and economics at George Washington University."
Top 5 Overbuilt U.S. Markets in 2007. Bt Beth Anderson.
NuWire Investor, September
10, 2007.
Housing, Housing Finance, and Monetary Policy. Remarks by Chairman Ben S. Bernanke
at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City's Economic Symposium, Jackson
Hole, Wyoming. August 31, 2007.
"Recently, the subject of housing finance has preoccupied
financial-market participants and observers in the United States and
around the world. The financial turbulence we have seen had its
immediate origins in the problems in the subprime mortgage market, but
the effects have been felt in the broader mortgage market and in
financial markets more generally, with potential consequences for the
performance of the overall economy."
Midsummer Meltdown: Prospects for the Stock and Housing Markets.
By Dean Baker. CPER: Center for Economic
and Policy Research. August 2008.
“The housing bubble was recognizable, but as was the case with the stock
bubble, those who focused their analysis on fundamentals were largely
ignored in the media and in policy circles."
Walkaways Increase at WCI Condos. By Matthew Haggman.
Miami Herald. August 7, 2007.
"Builder WCI Communities said more buyers are walking away from its
condos, though the company said it is ready to withstand what it called
a `protracted downturn.'"
Left in the Lurch.
by Cynthia Barnett. Florida Trend,
August 1, 2007.
"Florida has one of the highest foreclosure rates in the nation. But the
downturn in the residential housing market has left plenty of other
problems in its wake, including increasing numbers of construction
defects."
New Market; Mew Model.
Economic & Real Estate Trends.
PMI Mortgage Insurance
Company. Summer 2007.
"Between slowing appreciation, falling demand, and layoffs in the
construction industry, we begand to see a change in the housing market
by early 2006. The contraction of the subprime lending industry in early
2007 added momentum to the transition, and today we are in a vastly
different market than we were even as recently as a year ago.."
Subprime Mortgages: Primer on Current Lending and Foreclosure Issues.
By Edward V. Murphy, CRS Report for Congress. March 19, 2007.
"Subprime mortgages are loans extended to borrowers with weak credit
profiles. Subprime mortgages entail higher risk of delinquency and
default. Recent increases in subprime borrower foreclosures and lender
bankruptcies have prompted concerns that some lenders' underwriting
guidelines are too loose and that some borrowers may not have fully
understood the risks of the mortgage products they chose. Regulatory
agencies are revisiting the guidance they provide lenders and are
reevaluating required disclosures to consumers. In addition, Congress is
holding hearings on the subject and may consider consumer protection
legislation."
Economix: A Word of Advice During a Housing Slump: Rent. By David Leonhardt.
New York Times,
April 11, 2007.
"For years,homeownership made more sense than renting. But now it is
clear that people who chose renting over buying in the last two years
made the right move." In
ProQuest.
Housing Slump Pinches States in Pocketbook. By
Abby Goodenough. New York Times.
April 8, 2007.
"MIAMI, April 7 — State tax revenues around the country are growing far more
slowly this year and in some cases falling below projections, a result of the
housing market slowdown that has curbed voracious spending on real estate,
building materials, furniture and other items." in
ProQuest.
The US Housing Recession is Still Far from Bottoming Out.
By Nouriel Roubini and Christian Menegatti.
RGE Monitor. March 2007.
"A boom in the U.S. housing sector in the 2000-2005 period led to a
housing bubble and excesses in the housing market that eventually
triggered a housing bust and recession in 2006 that remain severe in
2007. The consensus view argues that this housing recession is bottoming
out and that the housing sector may recover from its trough some time in
2007. But the view that the housing recession is close to bottoming out
is as flawed as it is widely presented."
Could Tremors in the Subprime Mortgage Market Be the First Signs of an Earthquake?
Knowledge@Wharton, February 21, 2007.
"For months, the steady drip of news about troubles in the subprime mortgage
market looked no worse than one would expect: merely a comeuppance for lenders,
borrowers and investors who should have known that high-interest loans to people
with poor credit were risky. During the same period, many economists started
breathing again after concluding that the superheated home market of recent
years had not become the bursting bubble many had feared. While home prices are
leveling off, there has been no deep, widespread decline.
But now some experts wonder whether those sighs of relief came too soon,
especially in light of the troubles recently experienced by one of the largest
subprime players, HSBC Holdings. Some suggest that the growing number of
borrower defaults in the "aggressive lending" market, which includes various
types of risky mortgages besides subprime loans, could shock the broader housing
market and economy after all. Many subprime borrowers are paying 10% to 12%,
compared to 6% to 8% on standard, or "prime," loans, and delinquencies are
rising. "
Housing: Boom or Bubble?
By Timothy Schiller. Business Review (Federal Reserve Bank of
Philadelphia) 2006, Fourth Quarter, p. 9-18.
"In
'Housing:
Boom or Bubble?,' [Economist] Tim Schiller asks whether
there was a so-called bubble in house prices or whether fundamental
economic factors explain the rapid increase."
The End of the Great American Housing Boom. By Christian Weller.
Center for American Progress, December 8, 2006.
"What it means for you, me and the U.S. economy."
Full Report PDF, 38 p.
Subprime Loans Going from Boon to Housing Bane.
By Vikas Bajaj and Ron Nixon. New York
Times, December 6, 2006.
"CHICAGO — In the housing boom of the last six years, millions of
blacks,
Hispanics and members of other minority groups achieved the dream of
homeownership. While a steadily growing economy helped, experts say a
new
breed of high-cost home loans deserved much of the credit." In
ProQuest.
The Coming Collapse in Housing. By John Mauldin.
Gold$eek, November 19, 2006.
Housing Construction Plummets in October.
By Bill Brubaker. The
Washington Post, November 17, 2006.
"U.S. home construction plunged in October to its lowest level in more
than six years, according to government data, sending a chill through
the slumping housing market."
As Home Owners Face Strains, Market Bets on Loan Defaults.
By Mark Whitehouse. The Wall Street Journal. October 30, 2006, p.A1.
"New derivatives link fates of investor and borrower in vast 'subprime'
sector." in
ProQuest.
Bursting Bubble Blues.
By Paul Krugman. New York Times,
October 30, 2006, p. A25.
"The five stages of housing grief." In
ProQuest.
Deconstructed.
The Economist, October 27, 2006.
"Housebuilding activity tumbles again, pulling down America’s growth
rate."
Economist.com.
Across Nation, Housing Costs Rise As Burdern.
By Janny Scott and Randall C. Archbold.
New York Times, October 3, 2006.
"The burden of housing costs in nearly every part of the country grew sharply
from 2000 to 2005, according to new
Census Bureau data being made public today. The numbers vividly illustrate
the impact, often distributed unevenly, of the crushing combination of
escalating real estate prices and largely stagnant incomes." In
ProQuest.
It Seemed Like a Good Idea at the Time.
By Bob Tedeschi. New York Times.
September 24, 2006.
Payments on adjustable-rate mortgages are heading up, leaving many
homeowners with some hard choices. In
ProQuest.
Housing Market Correction looks to Last Years.
Sheryl King, Merrill Lynch Economist. September 11, 2006.
"Our work suggests that home prices are overvalued by about 30%. That
indicates that, over the next five years, housing inflation will either have to
slow to a rate that is less than the overall pace of inflation or decline
outright to correct the imbalance that exists now. Moreover, even that fairly
grim outlook may be too optimistic; our sense is that the housing-market
correction might not be completed by the time 2011 rolls around."
What Happens to Banks When House Prices Fall? U.S. Regional Housing Busts of the 1980s and 1990s. By David C. Wheelock.
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, September/October, 88(5), pp.
413-29.
"The recent rapid appreciation of house prices in many U.S. markets has
prompted concern over the possible effects of a sharp decline in prices,
especially for commercial banks and other real estate lenders. This
article examines regional real estate booms and busts in the 1980s and
1990s."
The Housing Bubble and Its Implications for the Economy.
U.S.
Senate Committee on Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs. September
13, 2006.
"WASHINGTON, DC - In an effort to take a comprehensive look at the U.S. real
estate market and its effect on our economy, U.S. Senator Jack Reed (D-RI) and
his colleagues on the Senate Banking Committee’s Subcommittee on Housing today
held a hearing on “The Housing Bubble and Its Implications for the Economy.”
During the hearing Reed questioned housing industry experts and leading
economists about the state of the housing market and the perils of a possible
'housing bubble.'
" Reed
Press Release.
U.S.: Another Post-Bubble Shakeout. By Stephen Roach.
Morgan Stanley. August 25,
2005.
"Five and a half years ago the equity bubble popped. Within six months,
the US economy went into mild recession, and the global economy was quick to follow.
Today, America’s housing bubble is finally bursting. Is the die cast for
another bubble-induced downturn in the US and global economy?"
Housing by
the Numbers.
The Big Picture (Barry Ritholtz's Weblog). August 26, 2006.
Read Between All those For-Sale Signs. By David Leonhardt
and Vikas Bajaj. New York Times,
August 27, 2006.
"Real bubbles pop. They are fully formed one moment and gone the next.
Financial bubbles rarely meet with such a definitive end, which has always been
the biggest problem with the metaphor. They let out their air in unpredictable
bursts, and it’s usually impossible to figure out whether they have finished
deflating or are just starting to. Still, the latest housing numbers seem like they
could be a turning point. A real estate crash might not be the most likely outcome,
but it certainly seems legitimate to think about what one would look like." In
ProQuest.
Housing Gets Ugly.
By Paul Krugman. New York Times August 25, 2006. ($$Subscription
Required)
"Bubble, bubble, Toll’s in trouble. This week, Toll Brothers, the nation’s
premier builder of McMansions, announced that sales were way off, profits were
down, and the company was walking away from already-purchased options on land
for future development.Toll’s announcement was one of
many indications that the long-feared housing bust has arrived. Home sales are
down sharply; home prices, which rose 57 percent over the past five years (and
much more than that along the coasts), are now falling in much of the country.
The inventory of unsold existing homes is at a 13-year high; builders’
confidence is at a 15-year low." In
ProQuest.
Housing Finance in the Global Financial Market. CGFS Papers No. 26.
Bank for International Settlements, January 2006.
"The Biggest Slump in US Housing in the Last 40 Years"...or 53 Years?
Nouriel Roubini's
Global Economics Blog, August 23, 2006.
"'The Biggest Slump in US Housing in the Last 40 Years': These are not my
words but those of the Toll Brothers, the famous luxury McMansions homebuilders.
As reported by the WSJ today: In his 40 years as a home builder, Mr. Toll says, he has
never seen a slump unfold like the current one. "I've never seen a downturn in
housing without a downturn in employment or... some macroeconomic nasty
condition that took housing down along with other elements of the economy," he
says. "This time, you've got low unemployment, you've got job creation, you've
got a stable stock market and relatively low interest rates.".
"
Housing Slump Proves Painful for Some Owners and Builders.
By James R. Hagerty and Michael Corkery.
Wall Street Journal, August 23, 2006, p.A1.
"HERNDON, Va. -- For years, real-estate brokers and home builders
promised that the soaring property market eventually would glide to a
soft landing. These optimists predicted that home prices, which had more
than doubled in parts of the country between 2000 and 2005, would
continue to rise, but at a more normal pace of 5% or 6% a year." In
ProQuest.
Home Sales Fall to Unexpectedly Low Rate.
By Jeremy W. Peters. New York Times,
August 23, 2006.
"Sales of existing homes fell in July to an unexpectedly low rate, a sign that
a widespread softening of the housing market is taking hold.
"
Going, Going, Gone... By James R. Hagerty and Michael Corkery.
The Wall Street Journal, August 16,
2005. p. D1.
"As a glutted real-estate market makes homes harder to sell, some sellers are
trying a different approach: putting their house or condo on the auction block."
In ProQuest.
The Coming Housing Crash.
By Dean Baker. TomPaine.com, July
31, 2006.
"All the economists who missed the stock bubble—this is
almost all economists—are just about to be embarrassed again. Several reports
released this week provide the strongest evidence yet that the housing bubble
may finally be deflating."
Sales Slow for Homes Old and New. By Jeremy W. Peters. The New York Times, July 26, 2006.
"A variety of experts
say the housing industry appears to be moving from a boom to something that is
starting to look a lot like a bust." In
Proquest.
For Sale Signs Multiply Across U.S..
By James R. Hagerty. The Wall Street Journal, July
20, 2006. p. D1.
"The housing market continues to weaken in much of the country
as inventories of unsold homes rise and many sellers cut their asking prices, a
quarterly survey by The Wall Street Journal shows.
There is no sign of a broad collapse of housing prices about a
year after the once-hot coastal markets entered a long-anticipated cooling
phase. But the general level of prices is edging down in some areas and leveling
off in others, while the supply of homes for sale keeps rising.
The number of homes on the market in Orlando, Fla., for
example, is nearly five times the year-earlier level, while the inventory has
quadrupled in Phoenix and Tampa, Fla., and nearly tripled in the Washington,
D.C., area." In
ProQuest.
Commercial Real Estate's Perfect Storm: What Lies Ahead?
Knowledge@Wharton,
July 12, 2006.
"The commercial real
estate market has been on a tear in the last few years. Banks, insurance
companies and institutional investors have funneled money into the market
because its returns, in an environment of low interest rates, exceeded those of
other asset classes. As interest rates begin to climb, how will that situation
change?"
Is the Housing Bubble Collapsing? 10 Economic Indicators to Watch.
By Dean Baker. Center for Economic and
Policy Research. Issue Brief. June 2006.
"Evidence is mounting that the housing bubble has passed its peak. It
remains to be seen how far and how quickly the housing market will
return to more normal levels. This paper discusses key sources of data,
both government and private, that provide useful information on the
state of the housing market. It gives a brief description of each of the
main publicly available data sources and their uses and limitations."
State of the Nations Housing 2006.
Joint Center for Housing Studies. Harvard
University.
"(Cambridge, MA) With interest rates rising and speculative demand
cooling, the housing boom is coming under pressure, finds this year’s State of the Nation’s Housing
report. As long as the economy continues to create jobs and builders trim
production to match slowing demand, house prices will keep climbing and the
housing sector will likely achieve a soft landing. Although house price growth
will likely moderate in many areas, sharp drops in house prices are unlikely
anytime soon. Major house price declines seldom occur in the absence of severe
overbuilding, major job loss, or a combination of heavy overbuilding and modest
job loss. Fortunately, these preconditions are nowhere in evidence across the
nation’s metropolitan areas." [Press
Release]
Gainesville's Condo Market Booms. By
Marina Blomberg. Gainesville Sun,
June 28, 2006.
"While single-family home sales in the
Gainesville market dropped 28 percent in May - 332 compared to 462 in May
2005 - the sales of condominiums boomed between those two periods.
There were 97 condos sold in May 2005 and 167 in May 2006, a 72 percent
increase. This is the highest percentage hike in the state, which in some places
saw a 94 percent decrease of condo sales."
Overvalued Housing Market? Depends Where You Live.
Global Insight. June 2006.
"A new study,
House Prices in America, using Global Insight's extensive
proprietary databases on the housing market - which combined data and forecasts
for home prices, home sales, housing stock, and household income with a
methodology developed by the economics department of National City Corporation —
examines current and expected housing prices in the 317 largest U.S.
Metropolitan areas. Study findings indicate that 71
metropolitan areas, representing 39 percent of the nation's housing market, "are
extremely overvalued and at risk for a price correction." While price
appreciation continues at a historically high rate - boosted by especially
strong increases in markets that are already overvalued - the pace of
appreciation is slowing."
See
Full Study: House Prices in America - First Quarter 2006.
The Millionaire Down the Street Was Right,
But Now What's in Store for Real Estate?
Knowledge@Wharton,
June 14 - 27, 2006.
"For many across the U.S., the real estate market has been the latest
get-rich-quick craze. Indeed, hordes of homeowners and investors have
become wealthier as they watched their home values increase or their investment
properties sell for multiples of what they paid for them just a few years ago.
But the run-up in real estate may be ending. Federal Reserve chairman Ben
Bernanke last month said the housing market is "cooling." Around the same time,
former Fed chairman Alan Greenspan told the Bond Market Association that the
U.S. housing market's "extraordinary boom" is over. "
Alachua County Property Values Surge. By Jeff Adelson.
The Gainesville Sun, June 2,
2006.
"Gainesville, Florida. Alachua County's property values increased at an unprecedented rate in the
past year and passed most local governments' estimates, according to initial tax
assessments from the Property Appraiser's Office. The total value of all the property in
Alachua County jumped 15.5 percent to more than $20.6 billion in the past
year, according to the assessment.
"
Foreclosure Rates Rise Across the U.S.
National Public Radio. Morning
Edition. May 30, 2006.
"Home foreclosures are up 38 percent across the
country this quarter. Adjustable-rate mortgages tied to rising interest rates
may be part of the reason why.
"
Is There a Housing Bubble?
National Center for Policy Analysis.
May 26, 2006.
Gainesville, Ocala See Home Prices Take a Big Leap.
By Marina Blomberg.
Gainesville Sun, May 16, 2006.
"Gainesville and Ocala [Florida] have both registered two of the country's largest
percentage increases in the median price of single-family homes.
Gainesville and Ocala tied for the third strongest percentage increase of
the median price of existing single-family homes in the country between the
first quarters of 2005 and 2006, according to the National Association of
Realtors, which tracks transactions through multiple listing sales.
Both registered a 32 percent increase of median home prices - which are
$211,100 in Gainesville and $161,400 in Ocala - while metro Orlando's median
home prices increased 34 percent - to $257,300. "
Welcome to the Dead Zone.
By Shawn Tulley. From Fortune on
CNNMoney.com Fortunn
Magazine. May 5, 2005.
"Real Estate Survival Guide: The great housing bubble has finally started to
deflate, and the fall will be harder in some markets than others."
Out of Reach.
Florida
Trend. May 2006. (Free Registration)
"Rapid appreciation of home prices in
Florida during the past five years has pushed average prices to a record 6.1
times household income. Today, only 33% of households in Florida have annual
incomes of at least $60,476, the level needed to purchase the median-priced home
of about $250,000 using conventional financing. In contrast, 69% of households
had sufficient income to purchase the median-priced home at year-end 1999
"
Housing Strength Shifts to New Markets.
By James Hagerty. The Wall Street Journal. April 26, 2006, p. D1.
"As home sales cool on the East and West coasts, some cities
that missed out on the real-estate boom are becoming the strongest markets.
A look at inventories of unsold homes, prices and employment
trends points to generally positive signs in Houston, Dallas and Atlanta --
cities that have seen only modest home-price gains in recent years.
Metropolitan areas whose housing markets look less healthy, at
least in the short term, include Boston, Los Angeles, Miami, Minneapolis, New
York, Philadelphia and San Francisco. All of them have growing inventories of
homes and relatively weak job growth. As a result, houses that a year or two ago
might have sold in hours now are languishing on the market for months, and some
sellers are cutting prices." In ProQuest.
Hot Homes Get Cold.
By Michael Corkery. The Wall Street
Journal. April 12, 2006, p. B1.
"In Once-Booming Markets Such as Florida Coast, Housing Sales Languish."
In
ProQuest.
The Menace of an Unchecked
Housing Bubble.
By Dean Baker. Center for Economic
Research and Policy Research. March 16, 2006. See also:
The Economists'
Voice: Vol.3: No. 4, Article 1.
"An unprecedented run-up in the stock market propelled the U.S. economy in the late nineties and
now an unprecedented run-up in house prices is propelling the current recovery.
According to Dean Baker, like the stock bubble, the housing bubble will burst.
Eventually, it must. When it does, the economy will be thrown into a severe
recession, and tens of millions of homeowners, who never imagined that house
prices could fall, likely will face serious hardships." See also CEPR's
Long-Term Perspectives on the Current Boom in Home Prices.
By Robert J. Shiller. The
Economists' Voice: Vol. 3: No.4, Article 4.
"Robert Shiller
looks at over 100 years of data and asks the question every homeowner wants to
know: what is the short-term and long-term prognosis for real estate values? The
news isn’t reassuring, but luckily risk markets are being developed to help
people hedge or buy insurance against the risk that Shiller unveils."
The New Rules of Real Estate.
By Ruth Simon. Wall Street Journal.
March 28, 2006.
"As the spring selling season moves into high gear, the cooling housing market
is upending the conventional wisdom that guided buyers and sellers during the
housing boom." In
ProQuest.
S&P Will Launch Indexes to Track Housing Prices. By
Karen Talley. Wall Street Journal.
March 23, 2006.
"Investors who think the housing bubble is about to burst will soon be
able to bet not only on when it will happen, but where. Standard &
Poor's, a unit of McGraw-Hill Cos., is rolling out 10 indexes that will
track housing prices in various regions of the U.S., as well as a
composite index. The indexes, which plan to launch in April, will serve
as the basis for futures and options contracts that will trade on the
Chicago Mercantile Exchange. " In
ProQuest.
Was There a British House Bubble?
By Gavin Cameron, John Muellbauer and Anthony Murphy. Revised March 5,
2006.
"This paper addresses the question of whether there was recently a
bubble in UK house prices, which we take to mean a systematic but
temporary deviation of house prices from fundamentals."
The Wind Beneath the Economy's Wings. By John Mauldin.
Thoughts From the Frontline (Free Registration).
March 17, 2006.
"The U.S. outlook is all about the property market, which has been the
wind beneath consumers' wings this decade." Paul McCulley, Managing
Director, Pimco.
"The world seems to be breaking down into two camps: those who, like
McCulley,
think housing is critical to the growth of consumer spending and believe the
housing market may be in for some rough weather, although the forecasts vary
greatly from a mild frost to blizzard conditions. On the other side there are
those who think the housing market is in fine shape, will not be in for anything
more than somewhat less growth and the American consumer will figure out a way
to continue to spend more than he makes."
Condo Craze.
Gainesville Sun. March 2, 2006.
"Following a national trend, rental units are increasingly being converted
into condominium homes in the Gainesville area."
Farewell, Condo Cash-Outs. By Motoko Rich.
New York Times. February 17, 2006.
"When developers in Arlington, Va., threw a party 18 months ago to showcase
plans for Clarendon 1021, a condominium development that had not yet been built,
3,600 prospective buyers stood in line just for the chance to book reservations
to bid on the apartments. Now, less than a year after
the building opened, speculators in this and other buildings are putting dozens
of units on the market at the same time, causing asking prices and profits to
slip." In
ProQuest.
A Home Boom Busts.
By Don Lee. Los Angeles Times. January 8, 2006.
"Shanghai's hot housing market has fizzled after a run-up fed by speculators,
threatening a significant part of China's economy."
No
Bubble Trouble? By Paul Krugman.
New York Times. January 2, 2005.
"In spite of record home prices, housing in most of America remains
surprisingly affordable, thanks to low interest rates. That fact may
seem to say that there's no housing bubble. But it doesn't." In
ProQuest.
Twenty Years Later, Buying a House is Less of a Bite.
By David Leonhardt and Motoko Rich. New
York Times. December 29, 2005.
p. A1.
"Despite a widespread sense that real estate has never been more
expensive, families in the vast majority of the country can still buy a
house for a smaller share of their income than they could have a
generation ago." In
ProQuest.
Housing Affordability Hits 14-Year Low. By Ruth Simon.
The Wall Street Journal. December 22, 2005. p. D1. ($$Subscription
Required).
"Soaring house prices and higher mortgage rates have put homeownership
out of reach for more people than at any time in more than a decade." In
ProQuest.
Hear that Hissing Sound? (The Global Housing Market).
Economist. Vol. 377 Issue 8456,
p86-86. December 9, 2005.
"In the past three years, the total value of residential property in developed
economies has increased by an estimated $20 trillion, to over $60 trillion.
Granted, that increase is partly explained by the decline in the dollar; still,
it is double the $10 trillion by which global share values climbed in the three
years to 1999. Is this the biggest financial bubble in history?" In
Business Source Premier.
The Coming Bernanke Bust. By A. Gary Shilling.
Forbes.com. December 26, 2005. (Free Registration)
Recent House Price Developments: The Role of Fundamentals.
OECD Economic Outlook No. 78. Section III, pp. 193-234. Preliminary
edition. November 2005. Organization for
Economic Cooperation and Developmemt.
"Real house prices increased unusually rapidly in recent years. This
paper examines several aspects of the current episode which are unique
and the role of fundamentals in determining prices."
Trouble is Brewing in Housing. By Aaron Smith.
The Dismal Scientist. December 1, 2005.
Banks Tighten Lending to Build Condominiums.
By Christine Haughney and Ruth Simon. The Wall Street Journal. November
29, 2001, p.C1. ($$ Subscription Required)
"Some of the nation's largest lenders are cutting
back on financing and are tightening standards for condominium projects, a sign
that banks, which helped to fuel the run-up in real-estate prices with cheap
debt, may be growing more skeptical about the prospects for residential
properties."
In
ProQuest.
A Bubble-icious Tax Cut.
By Rodney Everson. Barron's 85 (46) p. 50. November 14, 2005. ($$
Subscription Required)
"In 1997, the relatively new Republican Congress
passed a change in the tax treatment of housing. It has had a substantial
consequence - a housing bubble of historic proportions that was completely
unexpected. The change was simple: An individual could sell a primary residence
and exclude the first $250,000 of capital gains from taxable income."
In
Proquest.
Real Estate Boom
Soon May Sputter as an Engine of Retail Sales.
By Rafael Gerena-Morales. The Wall
Street Journal($$ Subscription Required). November 26, 2005 p. A2.
In
ProQuest.
Florida Housing: Blueprint for Success?
EconSouth 7(3). Third Quarter 2005.
Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
"Encouraged by continued population growth, a strong
economy, and enthusiastic foreign investment, builders in Florida are breaking
ground at a record pace on luxury high-rises and planned beachfront communities.
And home buyers, eager to ride the wave of soaring property values, are snapping
up properties that are still on the drawing board. Can the real estate market
sustain this torrid pace?"
Monetary
Policy and the House Price Boom across U.S. States. By Marco del
Negro and Christopher Ortok. Working Paper 2005-24. October 2005.
Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
Will a Bursting Bubble Trouble Bernanke?: The Evidence for a Housing Bubble.
By Dean Baker and David Rosnik. Center
for Economic and Policy Research. November 2005.
"Washington, DC - Recent trends in the housing market suggest a
dangerous housing bubble, rather than a run-up caused by fundamental
factors such as higher incomes and population growth, according to a new
study by the Center for Economic and Policy Research." (CEPR Press
Release).
Can South Florida's Construction
Boom Weather Wilma? By Matthew Haggman.
Miami Herald. October 31, 2005.
How to Bargain for a House.
By Ruth Simon. October 29, 2005. Wall Street Journal ($$Subscription
Required).
"After years of soaring real-estate prices -- not to mention periodic bidding
wars for third-rate properties -- inventories of homes for sale are rising in
many parts of the country. As a result, some buyers are regaining long-lost
bargaining power."
Is Affordable Housing Becoming an Oxymoron? By Hal Varian.
New York Times. October 20, 2005.
"To paraphrase Yogi
Berra, it seems that houses are now so expensive that no one can afford to own
one. But of course, economists know better." In
ProQuest.
Investment Outlook. By Bill Gross.
PIMCO Bonds. October 2005.
"Make no mistake about it, the froth in the U.S. housing market is about to lose
its effervescence; the bubble is about to become less bubbly."
House Prices
and Monetary Policy: A Cross-Country Study. By Alan G. Ahearn, et
al. International Finance Discussion Papers No. 2005-841. September
2005. The Federal Reserve Board.
"This paper examines periods of pronounced rises and falls of real house
prices since 1970 in eighteen major industrial countries, with particular focus
on the lessons for monetary policy. We find that real house prices are
pro-cyclical—co-moving with real GDP, consumption, investment, CPI inflation,
budget and current account balances, and output gaps. House price booms are
typically preceded by a period of easing monetary policy, but then diminishing
slack and rising inflation lead monetary authorities to begin tightening policy
before house prices peak."
With Mortgages, Instant
Wealth for Middlemen. By Jeff Bailey.
New York Times. October 8, 2005.
"A vast industry of real estate middlemen has sprouted recently, riding the
ups and downs of the mortgage market, and in many cases, accumulating great
wealth in the process."
In
ProQuest.
Vultures Circle the Condo Market. By Park M. Chapman.
National Real Estate Investor. September 1, 2005.
"Jack McCabe has a sure-fire way to make a killing in Florida real estate. No,
he's not joining the throng of speculators in downtown Miami who are snapping up
blocks of condominiums in hopes of flipping the properties quickly. And no, the
real estate analyst from Deerfield Beach, Fla., isn't acquiring apartments in
order to convert them to condos for a handsome profit. McCabe has other ambitions. He wants to raise several hundred million dollars
for a “vulture” fund that plans to snap up distressed condos in Florida within
12 to 15 months — maybe sooner. Of course, much depends on when the high-octane
condo investment market begins to run out of gas." In
ProQuest.
Housing and the Fed.
By Daniel Jester. Dismal
Scientist. October 3, 2005.
"The strong housing market has been one of the major drivers of the U.S.
economy over the past few years. "As the inflation/growth trade-off becomes more unfavorable, the Fed will see the
housing market as one of the easiest targets to attack in order to slow growth.
Because of this, risks to our fed funds forecast lie on the upside."
In Dismal Scientist.
Slowing is Seen in Housing Prices in Hot Markets.
By David Leonhardt and Motoko Rich. New York Times. October 4, 2005.
"A real estate slowdown that began in a handful of
cities this summer has spread to almost every hot housing market in the country,
including New York. More sellers are putting their
homes on the market, houses are selling less quickly and prices are no longer
increasing as rapidly as they were in the spring, according to local data and
interviews with brokers." In
Proquest.
Greenspan Warns of Reliance on Housing Loans.
By Gre Ip. Wall Street Journal.
September 27, 2005. ($$$ Subscription Required)
"Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan, drawing on new
research he has personally supervised, said American consumers have become
enormously dependent on borrowing against their homes to fuel their spending,
and that a rise in mortgage rates could trigger a spending pullback."
In ProQuest.
For Greenspan's study see below.
Estimates of Home Mortgage Originations, Repayments and Debts on
One-to-Four-Family Residences. By Alan Greenspan and James Kennedy.
Finance and Economic Discussion Series 2005-41. September 2005. Federal
Reserve.
Is It Better to Buy or Rent?. By
David Leonhardt. New York Times. September 25, 2006.
"The thought has occurred to just about everybody who owns a home in a hot
housing market: maybe it's time to cash out."
In
ProQuest.
Assessing High House Prices: Bubbles, Fundamentals and Misperceptions. By
Charles Himmelberg,
Christopher Mayer and
Todd Sinai. Forthcoming in the Fall 2005
Journal
of Economic Perspectives.
Mortgage Risk: A Hot Export.
By James R. Hagerty and Ruth Simon.
Wall Street Journal. September 22, 2005. ($$ Subscription Required)
"When the American housing boom winds down, some of the first
howls of pain are likely to be heard in Europe and Asia. That is because investment banks have been moving more of the
risk of defaults on home mortgages to foreign investors, leaving less with U.S.
lenders and investors."
In
ProQuest.
Flipping Frenzy .
By Geoff Dutton. The Columbus
Dispatch. September 20, 2005.
"Wealthy investors profit from run-down houses."
The Bicoastal Housing Bubble.
By Bruce Bartlett. National Center for Policy Analysis. September 15,
2005.
Investing: Bubble Talk on Housing. By Conrad de Aenlle.
International Herald Tribune. September 17, 2005.
"When Alan Greenspan warned that the stock market was displaying signs
of "irrational exuberance," share prices collapsed - four years later.
Now the chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve says he can glimpse similar
frothiness in housing prices. "
Global House Prices - A Home-Grown Problem.
Economist. September 8, 2005.
"America's housing boom is causing an enormous misallocation of
resources."
Could Risky Mortgage Lending Practices Prick the Housing Bubble?
Knowledge@Wharton.
September 7, 2005.
If "Bubble" Bursts, Legacy of Greenspan May Deflate. By Bill Sing.
Los Angeles Times. August 26, 2005.
In
ProQuest.
Easy Credit in Mortgages May Backfire. By Floyd Norris.
New York Times. August 26, 2005. in
ProQuest.
Bruce Bartlett: The Housing Market: In a Bubble?.
August 24, 2005.
"Today, many of the same economists who correctly predicted the bursting
of the stock market bubble, such as Yale University's
Robert
Shiller, are saying that the housing market is in a bubble. If it
should collapse as the stock market did, the impact could be even more
painful."
From Coke to Cubists.
(Miami Property Market). Economist.
August 18, 2005.
"As if to complete its
transformation from drug-dealers' playground to mainstream metropolis, Miami
also has an all-American property boom. Last year, the tax roll in Miami-Dade
County grew by 16.5%—the biggest jump for 30 years (and also the third year of
double-digit growth). The city of Miami's property-tax base rose a staggering
27% in 2004. House prices have doubled since 1999." In
EBSCO.
Rents
Head Up as Home Prices Put Off Buyers. By David Leonhardt.
New York Times. August 25, 2004.
"Rents are rising again across the country, squeezing tenants who are
already coping with high gasoline prices and improving returns to
landlords after a deep five-year slump." In
ProQuest.
Is the
Housing market About to Bubble Over? By Gail Buckner. Fox News.
August 24, 2005.
Housing-Bubble Talk Doesn't Scare Off Foreigners. By Ruth
Simon, James R. Hagerty and James T. Areddy.
Wall Street Journal. August 24,
2005. ($$ Subscription Required)
"Global investors gobble up Mortgage-Backed Securities, keeping prices
strong." In
ProQuest.
Bubble-Metrics:
Economists Handicap Housing Markets. By James R. Hagerty.
Wall
Street Journal. August 23, 2005. ($$ Subscription Required)
"Raft of new studies offer clues about risk of declines." In
ProQuest.
Be Warned: Mr.
Bubble's Worried Again. By David Leonhardt.
New York Times.
August 21, 2005.
"Today, nine years after his lunch with Mr. Greenspan and five years
after the markets finally did crash, Mr. Shiller is sounding the same
warning for real estate that he did for stocks. In speeches, in
television and radio interviews and in a second edition of his prophetic
2000 book, 'Irrational Exuberance,' he is arguing that the housing craze
is another bubble destined to end badly, just as every other real-estate
boom on record has.".
"In a bubble, high prices are sustained only by the expectation of
more high prices. That is what makes a bubble a bubble, prone to
bursting. The reason we cannot expect a soft landing today is that
right now people are willing to pay these very high prices only
because they expect them to go up even more in the future. Prices
can't just level off, because when people no longer expect them to
go up, some of them will not want to hold at the high price."
[Source: Robert Shiller quoted in Housing Bubble
Weblog.]
In the Long Run, Sleep at Home and Invest in the
Stock Market. By Motoko Rich and David Leonhardt.
New York Times. August
19, 2005.
In ProQuest.
The Housing
Bubble: What's Next for Homeowners and Investors?. The Wall
Street Journal. August 17, 2005. ($$ Subscription Required)
WSJ Series examining the housing bubble. In
Wall Street Journal.
How Will Home
Boom End?. By James Hagerty.
Wall Street Journal. August 17,
2005. ($$ Subscription Required)
"When America's housing boom finally ends, don't expect a loud
pop.'It's not going to be a big dramatic event,' says William Apgar,
senior scholar at Harvard University's Joint Center for Housing Studies.
Unlike stock prices, the housing market can't collapse
in a few days. People can dump their stocks almost instantly, but it often takes
months to sell a house." In
ProQuest.
In Tampa Bay
Area, Home Costs are Soaring. By Jeff Harrington.
St.
Petersburg Times Online. August 16, 2005.
"Defying anecdotal evidence of a slowdown in some parts of the country,
home sales in the Tampa Bay area are still on a double-digit roll. The
median sales price for existing homes in the local market jumped 27
percent in the second quarter, from $153,700 to $195,300, according to
figures released Monday by the Florida Association of Realtors.
Statewide, the median sales price for the second quarter rose 29 percent
to $233,600. A year ago, it was $180,700. The national median price for
an existing single-family home was $208,500 in the second quarter in
metro markets, up 13.6 percent from a year ago, based on a report from
the National Association of Realtors."
Do Try This at
Home: Assess Your Area's Real Estate Bubble. By Damon Darlin.
New York Times. August 13. 2005.
"For the first time since the residential real estate marathon began 13
years ago, parts of the country are showing signs of exhaustion. But if
you rely on the experts to declare that a particular area's bubble has
popped, you may have waited too long."
Safe as Houses.
By Paul Krugman. New York Times.
August 12, 2005.
That Hissing
Sound. By Paul Krugman. New York Times. August 8, 2005
"This is the way the bubble ends: not with a pop, but with a
hiss. Housing prices move much more slowly than stock prices.
There are no Black Mondays, when prices fall 23 percent in a
day. In fact, prices often keep rising for a while even after a
housing boom goes bust."
In
ProQuest.
Greenspan Warns
of 'Speculative Fervor' in Housing.
Reuter's. July 20, 2005.
"In comments that reminded some market players of his 1996 warning of "'rrational
exuberance' in stocks, Greenspan said he could not rule out declines in
home values even though the U.S. economy had weathered the end housing
booms before without 'significan'" drops in the national level of
prices." [Greenspan's
House Testimony. July 21, 2005.]
Easy Money: A Mortgage
Salesman's Pitch. By George Anders.
Wall Street Journal. July
20, 2005. ($$ Subscription Required)
"As real-estate mania intensifies, the mortgage industry
keeps making it easier to borrow. 'Low documentation' loans are catching on,
including ones where lenders simply take borrowers' word about their income and
don't ask for pay stubs. Repayment terms sometimes are stretched as long as 40
years, to help shrink monthly payments. In the most common twist, lenders aren't
requiring even token efforts to repay principal in the early years of a
mortgage. Interest-only payments suffice. In some cases, borrowers can even pay
less than that, allowing interest to pile up and be repaid later." In
ProQuest.
Sun Starts to
Set on Florida Housing Boom.
Financial Times. Jul 16, 2005.
"If a property bubble is developing in South Florida, its centre is
downtown Miami. Once sterile and crime-ridden, the city's business and
arts districts are undergoing rapid redevelopment. More than 11,000
residential units are under construction, with an additional 23,000
approved and 27,000 more planned. In comparison, only 7,343 units were
built in the past decade."
Bloggers Talk
About the Bubble.By Annette Haddad.
Los Angeles Times. July
16, 2005.
Housing Prices
Aren't Fed Target, Greenspan Says. By Greg Ip.
Wall Street
Journal. July 19, 2005. [$$ Subscription Required]
"'The regulatory system is not designed to influence or
control asset bubbles, but rather to ensure that bubbles, should they develop,
do not lead to unsafe lending practices,' Mr. Greenspan said in a letter to Rep.
Jim Saxton (R., N.J.), chairman of the Joint Economic Committee of Congress." In
ProQuest
Homeowners
Place Faith in 'Exotic' Mortgages. By Bob Sullivan. MSNBC. July
18, 2005.
Experts warn of day of reckoning with buy now, pay later loans.
Is Commercial Real Estate Still a Good Investment? .
Knowledge@Wharton. July 13, 2005.
"...as the consensus builds that the housing market
has become seriously overvalued, some are asking whether the same might be true
of commercial property. The answer matters not just to the individual and
institutional investors who are committing ever-greater sums to real estate, but
also to the growing number of companies who are using their valuable property to
obtain cheap financing."
[Source: Knowledge@Wharton. July
13-26, 2005.]
The Thirteen
Riskiest Housing Markets. By Dave Lindorff.
Kiplinger Personal
Finance. July 13, 2005.
"Certain markets are vulnerable to falling housing
prices. If your hometown is on this list, the value of your house may be
in
jeopardy."
Feds No Longer Dismiss Talk
of Housing Bubble. By Martin Wolk.
MSNBC. July, 11, 2005.
"Regulators focus on role of 'exotic loans' in propping up housing
prices."
Boom in Jobs, Not Just Houses, as Real Estate Drives the Economy. By
David Leonhardt. New York Times. July 9, 2005.
"Mr. Molina is one small part of what might be called the real estate
industrial complex, the economic engine that has become one of the few
reliable sources of growth in recent years. Encompassing everything from
land surveyors to general contractors to loan officers, the sprawling
sector has added 700,000 jobs to the nation's payrolls over the last
four years, according to an analysis by
Economy.com, a research
firm." [In
Proquest]
Hole in the Housing Bubble. By Raymond Bonner.
New York Times. July 5, 2005.
"SYDNEY, Australia - For several years, dinner party
chatter here did not linger on favorite Australian
subjects like rugby, cricket, sailing and surfing or
politics. No, all the talk was of real estate: how much
a house was worth, how much more this year than last,
and how much more valuable it would be next year." in
ProQuest.
Cover Story:
Bubble Bath of Doom. By Howard Kurtz. Media Notes.
Washington Post. July 4,
2005. p. C1. In
ProQuest.
"Five years after most of the media cheered on a stock-market mania that
blew up with disastrous consequences, journalists seem determined to
sound warnings about the overheated real estate market."
Thoughts on the
Housing Bubble. By John Mauldin.
Forex Rate. July 2, 2005.
What Housing Bubble?
Time Online. July 4, 2005.
On the Flip Side.
By Mike Vogel. Florida Trend. July 2005.
"Everybody, it seems, is a real
estate investor: Speculators of all stripes continue to fuel an
unprecedented building boom, undeterred so far by talk of a bubble and
fears that interest rates may rise."
U.S. Bubble Trouble. By Celia Chen.
Economy.com. June 23, 2005.
"Federal Reserve Chairman Greenspan’s sanguine statements regarding
housing market bubbles are failing to keep the froth from foaming up,
with the media spewing forth new stories every day debating the degree
to which speculation is distorting house prices and whether the bubble
will have to pop."
Housing Bubble -- or Bunk?
Business Week Online. June 22, 2005.
"Are home prices soaring unsustainably and due for plunge? A
group of experts takes a look -- and come to very different conclusions."
Miami's Housing Bubble Biggest in Nation. By Matthew
Haggman. Miami Herald. June 22, 2005
"A Merrill Lynch survey pegged Miami's real estate
market -- with its growing affordability gap -- as the most 'bubbly' in
the nation."
U.S. Housing Bubble May Pop. By Dean Calbreath.
SignOnSanDiego.com. June
21, 2005.
"By the end of the year, America's bubbling
housing prices will likely flatten or pop, causing an economic slowdown,
economists warned in a flurry of reports yesterday and today.
"Red flags issued by such diverse sources as the Merrill Lynch
investment firm, the University of Maryland and the UCLA Anderson
Forecast warn that a stumble in housing prices could take a major bite
out of economic growth, damaging the already weak job market."
The Bubble's New Home. By Jonathan R. Laing.
Barron's. June 20, 2005.
"Despite what Alan Greenspan says, there's a huge housing bubble, argues
Yale economist Robert Shiller, that gradually could push real prices
down 50% after it bursts. Why he's worth listening to."
[In
ProQuest]
Is the Global
Housing Bubble Set to Burst?.
Times Online. June 19, 2005.
House Prices | After the Fall.
Economist.com. June 16th, 2005.
"Soaring house prices have given a huge boost to the world economy. What
happens when they drop?"
The Global Housing Boom.
Economist.com. June 16, 2005.
"Never before
have real house prices risen so fast, for so long, in so many countries.
Property markets have been frothing from America, Britain and Australia
to France, Spain and China. Rising property prices helped to prop up the
world economy after the stockmarket bubble burst in 2000. What if the
housing boom now turns to bust?"
The Trillion-Dollar Bet. By David Leonhardt.
New York Times June 16, 2005.
"American homeowners have made a trillion-dollar bet that mortgage rates
will remain near record lows for at least a few more years. But with
some interest rates already rising, economists worry that the bet could
turn bad."
Amid Low Rates, Home Prices Rise Across the Global
Village. ($ Subscription Required) By Jon E. Hilsenrath and Patrick Barta. The Wall Street
Journal. June 16, 2005. p. A1. in
ProQuest.
State of the Nation's Housing 2005.
Harvard University's Joint Center
for Housing Studies.
"In 2004,
housing markets posted record growth. Homeownership reached an all time
high of 69 percent, with households of all ages, incomes, races and
ethnicities joining the home buying boom. Single-family starts hit a
record 1.6 million units, while new and existing home sales grew to
nearly 8 million. Mortgage product innovations helped markets stay hot.
Subprime loans gave millions with blemished credit records, who would
previously have been denied a loan, the chance to buy a home. Meanwhile,
interest-only and adjustable rate loans are helping blunt the impact of
higher home prices. Indeed, adjustable rate mortgages accounted for more
than a third of all mortgage loans last year and interest-only loans for
nearly one-quarter. “The irony of today’s housing market is that while
fundamentals are supporting record levels in residential investments,
housing affordability problems are climbing the income scale” states
Nicolas P. Retsinas, director of Harvard’s Joint Center for Housing
Studies." [Source:
JCHS
Press Release. June 13, 2005]
America's House Party.
Time. June 13, 2005. Vol. 165, No. 24, p. 16. In
EBSCO.
Some Investors Hope a Housing Bubble Will Burst.
MSNBC. June 7, 2005.
Yale Professor Predicts Housing 'Bubble' Will Burst.
NPR. June 3, 2005
Is the Housing Bubble About to Burst?
By Ann Thompson. MSNBC. May 31, 2005.
Fed Debates Pricking the U.S. Housing 'Bubble'. By
Edmund L. Andrews. New York Times May 31, 2005, p. C1. In
ProQuest.
A Bane Among the Housing Boom: Rising Foreclosures. By Michael
Powell. The Washington Post, May 30, 2005, p.A1.
Is
Your House Overvalued? By David Leonhardt. New York Times
May 28, 2005, p. C1.
Florida's Housing Bubble, Is It Ready to Burst? By Robert Trigaux.
St. Petersburg Times Online. May 25, 2005.
Explaining Recent Changes in Home Prices. By Richard J. Rosen.
Chicago Fed Letter. July 2005.
U.S. Home Prices: Does Bust Always Follow Boom? FDIC: FYI -FYI
Revisited. May 2, 2005.
"In
February 2005, the FDIC released an FYI report entitled
"U.S. Home
Prices: Does Bust Always Follow Boom?" The article examined the historical
pattern of home price booms and busts for U.S. metropolitan areas. This issue of
FYI updates the home price analysis from the previous article, using
recently released 2004 data for the house price index (HPI) published by the
Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight (OFHEO). Based on this index,
U.S. average home prices rose by almost 11 percent in 2004, up from 7 percent in
2002 and 2003. Moreover, the number of boom markets according to our definitions
increased by 72 percent last year, and now includes some 55 metropolitan areas."
Housing Bubble Concerns and the Outlook for Mortgage Credit Quality.
FDIC Outlook: In Focus This Quarter. Spring 2004.
Note:
designates a University of Florida Libraries subscription database.
|
Business Library
